Last updated: 11 November 2026

Probably Stolen Beginner Guide Best Start and Early Survival

Pick Apprentice for your first run of Probably Stolen: the developers made it the beginner start, a generalist shop you upgrade as you learn, while every other trade opens with one specialty's stock and its risks. Whatever you pick, survival comes down to two habits: inspect before you buy, and keep the next rent payment in Credits before you spend on anything else.

01Which starting trade should you pick

Probably Stolen launched with nine starting scenarios, and each one sets your opening stock, equipment and first specialty:

• Apprentice — the beginner start: a generalist shop you upgrade as you go, learning the game at your own pace.
• Water Merchant — test, purify and relabel water, which is worth more than gold on the station; every bad batch you sell is your liability.
• Fence — stolen goods only: sell fast and stay out of Security's sight.
• Gunsmith — a Class 1 weapon permit plus a stock of firearms and ammunition; high margins, but weapons bring Security inspections.
• Chemist — chemistry lab equipment and closely guarded recipes for profitable chemicals (the crafting recipes guide covers the chemistry line).
• Hydroponic Farmer — hydroponic machines and farming supplies; crops grow in a small space and later lead to genetically modified breeds.
• Aquafarmer — a stock of Tilapia and recirculating aquaculture systems; water quality, feed and environment shape the fish you raise.
• Rat Wrangler — the ranching start, built around raising rats.
• Rock Bottom — nothing at all, on the game's maximum difficulty.

After the scenario you also choose one of four difficulty options. The developers' own 1.0 notes add one warning for a first run: don't take the Sentinel Collapse Disorder perk. It needs an Immunivax injection every night, and going too many nights without one ends the run (see all endings).

Your first trade isn't permanent. Retired specialists sell other trades during a run: the Retired Farmer (350 Credits) adds Hydroponic Farming, the Retired Gunsmith (650 Credits) Gunsmithing and the Retired Chemist (1,000 Credits) Chemistry, so an Apprentice shop can branch out once its income is steady.

02How rent works and how a run is won

You run the shop on a loan, and the rent keeps rising. You win by owning the store: pay the Landlord its full price in Credits on a rent day, or take a Loan Shark mortgage and pay it off. Both buyouts are explained in the all endings guide.

Failing to pay rent ends the run unless you hold a Rent Grace token, and those come from certain side jobs. Treat a Rent Grace token as insurance and keep one in reserve when you can.

Confiscated stock and bad deals are what break a rent budget, so count the next payment as already spent before you buy stock, a machine or a bulk lot.

A mortgage has its own trap: miss a payment with no goods the Loan Shark can take instead, and the run ends in Repossession.

03The core loop: inspect, decide, sell

Every item has its own check before you pay for it. Cigarette packs need a visual inspection, water has to be tested and filtered, weapons need permits and modifications, chemicals depend on recipes, and rare items need a proper appraisal. Suppliers overstate what their goods are worth, and when you misjudge an item, you absorb the cost.

Every customer is a decision too: approve the sale, refuse it, report the customer or look away. The person at the counter could be Security fishing for evidence, a revolutionary looking for leverage or a fallen elite testing you. Reputation buys access and protection, but it also paints a target on the shop.

Reports move your Security standing: reporting the right person raises it, while reporting the wrong one costs Security standing and a financial penalty. At -100 Security reputation the run ends (the Framed ending).

If you suspect a customer is an aug, the Aug Scanner (200 Credits) checks your current customer for 25 energy per scan.

04Gray-zone profits and their price

The best margins sit in the gray zone: cut a product's quality, relabel a counterfeit as genuine, or fence discounted stolen goods you think Security won't trace. Some trades need heavy machinery and permits, others just a good hiding spot and a straight face.

Security is the obvious risk. Fines, criminal cases and contraband found in an inspection all add up, and an unpaid fine on its own can end the run as Arrested.

The other risk is mob justice. Your standing with the Lower Levels moves with how you trade with Lower Levels customers, and if it falls to -100 a mob attacks the store and the run ends (the Lynched ending).

05Early machines worth the Credits

Buy a machine when it feeds a sale you already make. Most machines draw energy every day, and some, like the Recharger, only work on nights when the power bill is paid. Common early picks and what they do:

• Water Purifier (300 Credits) — removes contaminants from water, the core of a water business.
• Bottle Printer (100 Credits) — prints water containers in different sizes.
• Alarm System (150 Credits) — a chance to stop a theft during the night.
• Mirage Projector (400 Credits) — raises the store's attractiveness for the next day; it costs 16 energy a day, so add it once income is steady.
• Recharger (150 Credits) — charges the batteries stored inside it.
• Aug Scanner (200 Credits) — checks whether the current customer is an aug.

Vending Machines, new in 1.0, can be unlocked to sell goods overnight after you close the shop, which turns spare stock into income outside opening hours.

06Mistakes that end a first run

• Spending the next rent payment on stock, machines or a bulk deal.
• Paying a supplier's price for an item you didn't inspect or appraise.
• Leaving a fine unpaid: that alone can end the run as Arrested.
• Letting one faction's reputation slide to -100 while you chase Credits.
• Taking Sentinel Collapse Disorder on a first run.
• Taking a mortgage without sellable stock in reserve for a missed payment.